Tomorrow could be the last good chase for a while if you believe the forecast models. Looks like there will be a north and a south option on this setup but most will probably just "wishcast" their own areas with gas prices being so high. I will be wishcasting my area but will have no problem shooting up into Kansas if it starts to look better. After this chase it is starting to look like I might be able to dust off the camping equipment and take the boys camping although I really was not planning on doing any of that until around mid June when chase season was over, but over the last 3 years May has been the crappiest chase month with the first part of June usually making up for some of that.

Yesterday ended up being one of the biggest tornado outbreaks this close to Tulsa that I can remember in a long time. It ended up being a pretty messed up day forecast wise as I don't think anybody really knew how it was going to play out. Most chasers headed into Arkansas and I think a lot of the chasers that scored were ones that did not want to chase the jungles and stayed in their local areas and hoped for the best. I was kind of surprised to see the number of chasers who did not even attempt to chase this also but I guess after a year of crap combined with gas prices it has finally taken its toll on some chasers. I ended up targeting the I-40 area of Oklahoma and once I saw the go tornadic near McAlester I decided it was either head into the jungle or call it a day so I went jungle chasing. I new it would be almost pointless and I was never able to catch the storms with the crappy roads but eventually I did come up on a small town in Latimer Co that took a direct hit and was able to score some video to make the day worth while. I was surprised I was able to sell any damage video considering the scope of this event but I got in in pretty quick before all of the choppers were in the air. Probably the funniest part of it all was The Weather Channel. I call them to let them know I have sent up video and they seem all excited because they have not received any yet and need something for the evening program. It ends up they are so behind tech wise they cannot even open the file I sent them which was a different format because I was still in the jungle and had to send a small file but everyone else was able to view it fine. Eventually I did send it up in a regular format but figured it was to late so I blew it off. Today I get up to see they are using 4 day old damage footage out of western Kansas so I call them back and I get a different person who once again seems all excited but said she did not know what I charged and what my licensing length on the video was, not sure why she did not call and ask. I probably won't hear anything back from them but they have been at the bottom of my list for over a year now so it is not that big of a deal, it is just funny that a network that big seems so clueless when it come to weather video from out in the field.

Update 10:15am:
Watch box already up in the worst chase area imaginable, went up way earlier than anyone expected also. Eastern half of this box would not be that bad but that will be for the chasers who targeted Pine Bluff and are already there. More watches will be issued later and I bet we get a tornado watch he in E. OK at some point.

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I plan on chasing here in E. Okla today and hope a few good storms can fire around here this afternoon, I may go south and as far east as Ft. Smith but that will be it. I think most of the Moderate Risk has been tossed up for a big wind event from storms lining up and racing east. While Oklahoma is not in the Moderate risk I do think the storms will go up here first but the only qestion is how far south or how far north.

Normally on a setup like tomorrow I would not even be considering not chasing but tomorrow's entertainment could come in the form of watching this:
Spotternetwork is a website where chasers can show there positions while chasing using GPS. Tomorrows will be interesting because I imagine the number of chasers hitting this will be huge for several reasons:

1. It is May 10th and so far this year all of the good tornado days outside of 1 or 2 have all been in the eastern states.
2. Many chasers are still waiting to see their first tornado this year except for the few people who were in Osage Co. or Lamesa TX and maybe a few other odd ball events.
3. Next week does not look that good which only leaves 2 weeks of May chasing and then the storm season usually ends unless you want to drive to South Dakota.
4. Everyone got an early heads up with SPC putting out a Moderate Risk on there day 2 outlook.
5. Arkansas is a central point for plains chasers, southeast chasers and a few northcentral chasers.
   

The entertaining part come from the fact that Arkansas does not have a gridded road network like TX,OK,KS so almost everyone will be jockeying for position along interstate 40, this includes all of the chasers and tours groups that are not even part of spotternetwork. Also factor in that all tour groups are in full force right now with van loads of people and this could be the only show this week. If things move east of Little Rock then everyone can kind of spread out due to the terrain but it a single supercell tracks anywhere near I-40 it is going to be total chaser gridlock. Most chasers except for the real die hards would not even be considering chasing this due to terrain but with the way this year has gone I have no doubt everyone will be there. As far as chasing goes of course I will be out there but I just hope stuff can fire a little further west towards Hwy 75/69 so I don't have to venture into Arkansas.

Edit 3:00pm: Holy crap! I forgot about the fact that tomorrow is Saturday, that will probably add another couple of hundred chasers to the mix that other wise would not have been able to chase! SPC did move the risk area back to the west which is good. With the area they have outlined at this point I would not be surprised to see storms fire west of Tulsa tomorrow.

Got up today and saw a slight risk out in western Kansas and figured since it is May I might as well go check it out. Thunderstorm Watch box went up way early and even though I was hoping for a tornado watch it was still in western Kansas and sure enough the first storm that went up started dropping tornado's, I was still pretty far off and figured everything would cluster up before I got there. Much to my surprise that cell stayed tornado warned for almost 4 hours even though it did not drop anymore after the first ones. Finally caught up with it way further than I wanted to go and it was still tornado warned but did not have much left to it. Did drive through a hail path and saw a few busted windshields. Dropped into Pratt and let it run over me.

For the 5th time this year I got lured out of Tulsa by an SPC moderate risk with pretty good tornado probabilities only to be sitting in the middle of a Tornado Watch box looking at nothing except severe storms firing near Tulsa. It kind of stinks knowing that if I would just start blowing off great setups and staying home that I would end up seeing better storms in the end but I also know the first time I attempt this it would probably not work out like the other five times. The graphic below shows that tornado reports still continue to sky rocket this year and yet tornado video out of the central plains has almost been non-existent except for 3 or 4 events this year. One event in Texas this year has produced tornado video that got national play, 2 events in Oklahoma have produced tornado video that has gotten national play and Kansas has yet to see any tornado video so far this year. That is not that impressive when you consider the number of chasers, choppers and video cameras and not to mention the millions of gallons of gas that have been used hahaha!

A few photo's from yesterday.

After not being able chase yesterday I am going to take a shot at today's potential down south even though it does not look all that great. May is the peak month for chasing and this will bring the first week to a close and the following week does not look like it holds a lot as far as good setups. If the sun can pop out down south later today for a couple of hours then this setup could be really interesting, if it does not then it will just end up being a long rainy drive.

Can't chase todays setup out west which might end up being the better one. Tomorrow was looking almost perfect 4 days ago which is usually a bad thing because that means by the time is arrives it usually goes to crap. Still could be some what interesting in the early afternoon towards NC Okla and then later way down in SE Okla but will have to wait and see how those work out. Another shot a some stuff around here on Saturday and then after that it will be the final 3 weeks of May to look forward to.

Occasionally during the Spring the wind in Oklahoma will die down enough to let you enjoy doing things outside, that is after you have replaced your shingles on the roof and repaired your fences. The last couple of evenings have been really nice with cool temps and no wind and last night we built a little campfire and had a wiener roast. About a mile from my house is a site for everyones ice storm debris so I have a lifetime supply of camping firewood until they decide to haul that stuff off. Next storm system is coming in so it is probably going to start getting windy over the next few days.

The links below are not made up, they are real and the wording used is actually what I found when looking these forecast up. Active 2006, Very Active 2007 and now Super-Active 2008!!!!!!! What will they come up with next year? Super Duper Active Hurricane Season for 2009!!!! I think some of this forecasting has a little bit of the "Katrina effect" in it and they will probably just put active forecast out for the next 10-20 years just to be on the safe side, I would really be surprised to see a "less active" type forecast when that leaves them opened to get burned, even when it is not that active like on 2006, 2007 nobody really goes back and questions the accuracy of these forecast anyways.

Super-Active 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted
Very Active 2007 Hurricane Season Predicted
Active 2006 Hurricane Season Predicted

If it were not for the tornado's near Stillwater last week I would already be making my plans on where to chase in Kansas on Wed. Knowing that mother nature has now let go of her stranglehold she has had on NE Okla over the last 3 years I will plan on chasing here or slightly to the west on Wed. Right now the setup looks pretty good for a significant outbreak and the timing looks good for afternoon storms. There might also be possibilities at chases on Mon and Tue but won't decide on those until the last minute, sometime those pre events provide some great stuff if you decide to pull the trigger on a chase even though it might not look like the best setup.

Eastern states got tore up again with tornado's yesterday, this is the 4th 50 plus tornado events so far this year for them. The storm that produced the tornado's NW of Stillwater on May 1st got major national play yesterday so Oklahoma is now probably back as the tornado capital of the universe in most people minds, I hope that is not the only tornado event for us this year but it sure seems that over the last couple of years we get one good one and that is it. Quite weather until Wed and then there is the potential for another outbreak centered right over Oklahoma, the problem is that with is being that far out at this point it usually shifts somewhere else by the time it arrive.

Just got home and it is 4am and I am uploading video so I thought I would toss up a few pics.

I eventually knew I would get burned by one of these "conditional" setups in Oklahoma but that still did not keep me from heading into Kansas today. Was on the tornado warned storm near Sedan and then saw the stuff going up in Oklahoma, it was tough to pull of that warned storm but I did to head back into Oklahoma. After seeing 20 or 30 of these type setups over the last few years produced nothing in NE Okla it was finally nice to see one produce. I came into Pawhuska and while dropping south out of town I caught a quick look at a nice tube illuminated green as it hit something creating a power flash. Once I got my camera up I did not see it again and it seemed all of the lightning was overhead and the only reason I saw it the first time was the power flash. Something else incredible that I saw today was decent tornado footage out of NE Okla. The last time I saw good tornado footage from around here was April 22, 2004. Several people got some great footage and it really made me wish I had given that 31st "conditional" setup a chance! Big squall line headed this way from the west and that is another thing I have not seen around here in years, it looks awesome out west and I just hope it holds together long enough to get here.

After a week of non-stop hype and even funnier seeing Tulsa mentioned as a "chase target" several times, this system will finally come in today. As expected the Oklahoma portion of this setup will be a non-event except for a possible squall line overnight which I will of course take because no matter how hyped up these systems get in the end I just hope for at least some lightning, wind and rain!